The Island Residence

The research read

The Island Residence is an 84-unit condo on Keppel Island, in District 4. The lease is 99 years. The developer is Keppel Bay Pte Ltd, wholly owned by Keppel Land Limited. It is Singapore’s only private-island condo address outside Sentosa Cove. The land is Keppel Land’s own, held from decades back, not bought at a state tender. So there is no public land price to measure it against. Preview is targeted for Q4 2026 (est.), with keys around 2031 (est.). No price list, unit mix or floor plans have been released.

Three things separate it from the rest of the 2026 pipeline. The first is who is building it. This is the last of two company-held sites left from Keppel Land’s two-decade conversion of the island. Caribbean (2004), Reflections (2011) and Corals (2016) came first. It is a fourth build on the same island by the same developer, not a newcomer’s first go. The second is that its transport catalyst has already arrived rather than being promised. Keppel MRT (CC30) opened on 12 July 2026, closing the Circle Line loop. The third is the pricing problem. Because there was never a state tender, our indicative range has nothing to anchor to except the resale market next door. That gap is real, and much of what follows turns on it.

An island address cannot be copied. It is also not a price. There was no tender here, so there is no land cost to anchor an estimate to. That makes the first question what such an estimate is worth at all. Then three more. How far is the nearest MRT once you account for a single bridge on and off the island? What does a sub-2% gross yield do to an investor’s case? And who can fund a launch of all-large units with no confirmed entry price?

A company landbank, not a state tender

1. 2004Caribbean at Keppel Bay TOPs969 units, Keppel Land's first residential release on the island, converting former shipyard land at Keppel Harbour.
2. 2011Reflections at Keppel Bay TOPs1,129 units designed by Daniel Libeskind — six curved towers and villas, the island's largest release to date.
3. 2016Corals at Keppel Bay TOPs366 units, the island's third and lowest-rise release.
4. 2024The Reef at King's Dock TOPs429 units, a joint venture between Keppel Land and Mapletree — the island's most recent completion, and its highest-priced.
5. Q4 2026 (est.)The Island Residence previews84 units — the last of two parcels Keppel Land retained from the original conversion, on our own working estimate.

Every earlier release on this island was built by the same developer. Every one still trades in the resale market today. That record is real and can be checked. What it cannot do is stand in for a land price. This plot was never tendered on the open market. So there is no psf ppr figure to compare against a breakeven, the way there is for every state land site on this website. Any indicative pricing here is anchored to what the island’s own resale stock already fetches.

With no land cost to anchor to, what sets the price?

Because there is no tender to reference, we build our range the only defensible way available. We start from what Keppel Island’s existing stock trades at today. In our own dataset, over the twelve months to August 2026:

The pattern is a clean rising curve by age. Each newer release on the island has cleared the last. The Reef at King’s Dock is the newest finished project. It already sits close to $2,500 psf on average, with some sales above $2,700. Our indicative range of $2,800–$3,300 psf sits above that curve. That fits: it is the newest release, and the only genuine island address rather than a block facing Keppel Bay. It is our own estimate, not developer-confirmed. It is also built in a different way from every land-sale project on this site. There is no breakeven walk behind it, because there is no land cost to walk from. Full method at our pricing methodology. Note that this is the one project on our tracker where that method cannot apply in its usual form.

Closer on the map than on foot

• Telok Blangah (CC28), Circle Line — about 0.8km / 12 minutes (est.) in a straight line. This is the closest station by coordinates, and the figure our own dataset uses. It assumes a direct line across water the actual footpath doesn't take.
• HarbourFront (NE1/CC29), North East Line and Circle Line — about 1.1km / 15 minutes (est.) in a straight line, but the more likely practical route. Keppel Island is reached by a single bridge, so the real walking route to either station runs around the island's access road rather than as the crow flies — which typically favours HarbourFront's more direct approach over Telok Blangah's shorter straight-line distance. Verify the actual route with OneMap or on foot before treating either figure as fixed; this is one project where the gap between map distance and walking distance is genuinely large enough to matter.
• Keppel (CC30), Circle Line — about 2.2km by coordinates. Opened 12 July 2026, completing the Circle Line loop between HarbourFront and Marina Bay. It is too far to walk to from the island and functions as a precinct-level catalyst (see below), not a resident's daily station.
• By road, the Ayer Rajah Expressway gives direct access from Keppel Bay Vista, with the CBD and Marina Coastal Expressway a short drive away.

The usual worry about delays runs backwards here. There is no future line to slip, because the line has already opened. What can still change is the walking figure itself. Neither station distance above has been routed door to door. We would rather understate the case than round a bridge crossing down to a straight line.

A catalyst next door, not underneath

• Circle Line Stage 6 (delivered 12 July 2026). Keppel, Cantonment and Prince Edward Road stations completed the Circle Line loop between HarbourFront and Marina Bay — a dated, funded commitment that has already happened, source: LTA.
• HarbourFront Centre redevelopment (targeted H1 2031). A 33-storey mixed-use tower with Grade A office space and a 13,000 sqm elevated waterfront park, by Mapletree, closing for redevelopment in H2 2026.
• Berlayar Estate masterplan (unveiled 23 September 2025). Roughly 10,000 homes — about 7,000 public and 3,000 private — on the former Keppel Club site, the first phase of the Greater Southern Waterfront. Source: HDB.
• Greater Southern Waterfront (multi-decade programme). Around 1,000 hectares freed by the relocation of container port operations to Tuas — genuine, but a 20–30 year horizon rather than a near-term price driver.

This is a settled, built-up pocket that gains from a rebuild next door. It is not a first-mover site inside the construction zone itself. The Island Residence is not part of the Berlayar Estate rebuild. It sits on Keppel Land’s separate, already-finished Keppel Bay pocket next to it. The catalyst is borrowed, and worth counting as borrowed.

Schools and daily life on the island

On our own schools dataset, Blangah Rise Primary School sits about 1.41km from the site, and Radin Mas Primary School about 1.89km. Both are straight-line distances taken from OneMap map data. Neither falls inside the 1km priority band. MOE measures priority on its own basis, and the final site boundary is not fixed. Confirm the current band on MOE SchoolFinder before you rely on it.

The ballot record shows two different pictures. Blangah Rise Primary did not ballot at any phase in 2025 or 2026. Places exceeded applicants throughout, including 24 applicants for 60 Phase 1 places in 2026. Radin Mas Primary did ballot in 2025, at Phase 2C. Phase 2C is the stage where children without a sibling or parent tie apply. It drew 96 applications for 47 places. The published result shows 56 citizen applicants living within 1km for those 47 places. So sitting outside the 1km band did not stop Radin Mas from filling up at a later phase. Band distance and demand are related, but they are not the same thing. More on this pattern in our primary schools and new launch demand research.

It is worth splitting what exists today from what is planned. VivoCity and the wider HarbourFront shopping cluster sit within the area. Southern Ridges and Mount Faber Park connect to Telok Blangah Hill Park and HortPark along a ten-kilometre trail network. The Marina at Keppel Bay already runs a cluster of restaurants at the water’s edge. The HarbourFront Centre office and retail expansion adds to this from the first half of 2031. But a buyer moving in earlier inherits the area as it stands today, not as it will look then.

Sub-2% yield: what that means for an investor

This is the section most scarcity-led launch material skips. Keppel Island’s existing homes do have a real, proven rental and resale market. Our own dataset shows Caribbean, Reflections, Corals and The Reef at King’s Dock all trading steadily. The share of resales going through above their original purchase price runs from 76.6% at the oldest project to 100% at the newest.

But a boutique 84-unit launch of all-large units, at an estimated $2,800–$3,300 psf, caps what rental income can do. Large units yield less than compact ones. As units get bigger, rent per square foot rises far more slowly than price per square foot. On the numbers this site’s own estimate implies, a gross yield of about 1.9% to 2.2% (est.) is a reasonable planning assumption. It is meaningfully lower again after the higher non-owner-occupied property tax, maintenance and a month of empty weeks. That sits below what compact stock elsewhere in District 4 and the wider central region achieves today.

An investor should be clear about which argument is doing the work here. The case has to be scarcity: 84 units, and an island address that cannot be repeated. It cannot be rental income. Anyone weighing this mainly for yield should run their own entry price through our new launch ROI calculator. Compare it against a smaller unit elsewhere before committing.

Who buys an 84-unit island launch

Three kinds of buyer fit. Right-sizers and legacy buyers coming from a large landed home. They want a low-upkeep, private address without leaving the city. And they are drawn to the fact that there will only ever be 84 of these. Long-horizon holders who believe in the Greater Southern Waterfront’s scale. They will hold through a 15 to 20 year build-out rather than expect quick uplift. And buyers for whom Keppel Land’s four-for-four record on this exact island matters more than a land-cost discount.

It does not suit a buyer who needs a confirmed price today, because none exists. Nor one whose case rests on rental income, where the sums here do not hold. Nor a family whose decision turns on a 1km school band, since neither nearby primary school currently falls inside it. And not a buyer whose whole budget comes from an HDB flat sale with nothing on top. A launch of all-large units on a scarce 84-unit site, with no confirmed entry price, sits well outside that bridge.

Duties and financing at this price level

This is expected to be a private condo. So there is no income ceiling, no minimum occupation period, and no separate cap on the share of income going to a home loan. The binding constraint is the Total Debt Servicing Ratio. It caps all your monthly loan repayments at 55% of gross monthly income. The test uses a 4% interest rate, whatever rate you secure. You can borrow up to 75% of the price on a first housing loan. That falls to 45% on a second and 35% on a third. At least 5% of the price must be cash on a first property.

Singapore Citizens pay no Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty on a first property, 20% on a second and 30% on a third or beyond. Permanent Residents pay 5% on a first and 30% on a second. Foreign buyers pay 60%. Buyer’s Stamp Duty applies on the tiered scale, up to 6% of the price. Seller’s Stamp Duty is the tax for selling too soon after buying. Under the schedule effective 4 July 2025 it runs for four years. The clock starts when the option is exercised, not when you get the keys.

No price list, unit sizes or layouts have been released. So it is not yet possible to model what one unit would actually cost, with any honesty. The psf range above is the only number that exists.

Progressive payments follow the standard shape. You pay 5% on booking, then 15% plus Buyer’s Stamp Duty at exercise within three weeks. After that, payments are staged against construction milestones, with the balance at completion. Maintenance and property tax begin when the building is finished, not when you buy. The concrete step available now is an in-principle approval from a bank. Then, once a price list lands, you know which unit types you can afford instead of guessing.

Work the mechanics through our affordability calculator, stamp duty calculator and progressive payment calculator. Our TDSR guide explains how the borrowing cap works. None of this is a rate prediction. Test any illustrative figure against your own bank’s current assumptions.

The risks specific to Keppel Island

An 84-unit island launch carries an unusual risk profile. These are the parts we would want a buyer to look at hardest.

• HighNo price list and no land-cost anchorEverything about the eventual product other than the developer's track record is an estimate. Because this was never a Government Land Sales site, there is no psf-ppr figure to sanity-check a breakeven against — unlike every other launch on this tracker. Our $2,800–$3,300 psf range is built entirely from the island's own resale curve and is not developer-confirmed.
• HighStructurally narrow buyer poolWith no unit mix released and an estimated psf range that implies a large quantum on any plausible size, this sits well outside the typical HDB-upgrader bridge. The mitigant is that the product appears deliberately positioned for a right-sizer or legacy buyer rather than a mainstream upgrader — a narrow pool by design is a different risk than a narrow pool by miscalculation, but it still limits who a seller can find at exit.
• ModerateLonger walk to the nearest MRT than most 2026 launchesEven on the more favourable straight-line reading, this project's stations sit materially further than Telok Blangah Road GLS's roughly 5-minute walk or Berlayar Drive GLS's roughly 6-minute walk nearby (see below). The island's single bridge access likely makes the real walk longer still. The mitigant is that Keppel MRT's July 2026 opening has already strengthened the wider precinct's network position, even though it is not itself a walkable station from here.
• ModerateCompressed rental yieldAn estimated 1.9%–2.2% gross sits below what compact District 4 or RCR (Rest of Central Region) stock typically achieves. That is the arithmetic of a large-format, high-quantum boutique launch, not a defect — but it means an income-led case does not hold here.
• ModerateNo school within the 1km priority bandOn current, unverified-against-MOE distances, both nearby primary schools sit in the 1–2km band. Confirm via MOE SchoolFinder before treating this as fixed, but plan around it rather than assume it will resolve favourably.
• LowAdjacent construction activityThe HarbourFront Centre redevelopment (through H1 2031) and the wider Berlayar Estate build-out will be visible and periodically audible from parts of the island. Both are temporary and resolve well inside a typical hold period.

What else is competing nearby

Two state land sites in the Berlayar and Telok Blangah corridor give a real alternative, one with an actual land cost behind its pricing.

Telok Blangah Road GLS has 745 units. It was awarded on 20 November 2025 to Kingsford Development at $1,326 psf ppr. Our breakeven-derived indicative range for it is $2,820–$3,180 psf, with a roughly 5-minute walk to Telok Blangah MRT. Berlayar Drive GLS has 415 units. It was awarded on 4 August 2026 to Intrepid Investments and GuocoLand at $2,700 psf ppr. That is the most recent land sale in the area at the time of writing. Its indicative range is $3,100–$3,510 psf, roughly 6 minutes from the same station.

Both sit close to, or above, our resale-anchored estimate for The Island Residence. Both also offer a much shorter walk to the MRT. And unlike this project, both have a land cost an outside reader can check. Keppel Island is not competing on price per square foot or on walk time against either. Its whole claim rests on being an island.

What to watch for

1. 12 Jul 2026Keppel MRT (CC30) opensCompletes the Circle Line loop between HarbourFront and Marina Bay — the connectivity catalyst has already landed.
2. 4 Aug 2026Berlayar Drive GLS awarded$2,700 psf ppr to Intrepid Investments and GuocoLand — the newest land-cost data point in the immediate precinct, useful as a benchmark even though it isn't this project's own land cost.
3. Q4 2026 (target)Preview and first price listOur own working estimate, not developer-confirmed. This is when the estimates on this page become facts, and when this section will be rewritten around actual figures.
4. H1 2031 (target)HarbourFront Centre reopens33-storey mixed-use tower with Grade A office space and a 13,000 sqm park, by Mapletree.
5. ~2031 (est.)Estimated TOPAssuming a Q4 2026 launch and a typical four-to-five-year boutique low-rise build.

Our read on The Island Residence

Stated as a trade, it reads like this. You pay a price with no land cost behind it and no confirmed unit mix. In exchange you get the only private-island condo address in Singapore outside Sentosa Cove. The developer has a clean four-for-four record on this exact island. Its one committed transport upgrade has already been delivered rather than promised. That suits a right-sizer or legacy buyer who wants scarcity and privacy, and is not counting on a price discount to get there. It also suits a long-horizon holder who reads the Greater Southern Waterfront as a multi-decade tailwind rather than a near-term driver. It does not suit a buyer who needs a confirmed price before getting attached. Nor an investor whose case rests on rent. Nor a family tied to one school’s priority band.

Two numbers will decide whether it works. The first is the eventual price list against our $2,800–$3,300 (est.) range. Near the bottom, the premium over Keppel Island’s own resale curve is modest and defensible. Well above it, a buyer is paying for the island story on top of an already-full local price. The second is how many units sell on day one, measured against The Reef at King’s Dock, the island’s most recent and priciest release. That shows whether 84 units at this level clears comfortably or needs time. We re-check both the day the price list lands.

Wider context sits in our GLS pipeline tracker and our primary schools and new launch demand research. Interested buyers should visit The Island Residence appointed developer sales website to register interest, get the latest e-brochure and book a showflat viewing. It carries preview and launch updates as they are confirmed. Use this page as the yardstick to read them against.

The Island Residence: the short version

• 84 units on Keppel Island, the only private-island condo address outside Sentosa Cove.
• The land is Keppel Land’s own, not a state tender. So there is no public land price to check our estimate against.
• Our indicative range of $2,800–$3,300 psf is built from the island’s resale curve, not from a breakeven. It is an estimate.
• The Reef at King’s Dock, the newest completed project on the island, averages close to $2,500 psf.
• Keppel MRT opened in July 2026, but the nearest walkable station is HarbourFront at about 1.1km, over a single bridge.
• No primary school falls inside 1km. The nearest is 1.41km away.
• Rental yield would be roughly 1.9–2.2% gross (est.), held down by large unit sizes.
• Two nearby state sites price at $2,820–$3,180 and $3,100–$3,510 psf, with shorter walks and real land costs behind them.

So what should you do with this? Accept that you are paying for scarcity. Neither the price per square foot nor the walk to the station wins against the two state sites nearby. Walk the bridge yourself before you decide, because the map distance and the real distance are not the same here. And when a price list appears, measure it against The Reef at King’s Dock’s $2,500 psf. That is the island’s own most recent evidence of what people will pay.

Sources: LTA news releases on Circle Line Stage 6 (24 June–24 July 2026); HDB press release "HDB Unveils Masterplan for Berlayar Estate" (23 September 2025); URA Government Land Sales tender and award records for Telok Blangah Road and Berlayar Drive; Ministry of Education school data and 2025–2026 Primary 1 registration results compiled in our own schools dataset; IRAS and MAS for stamp duty, LTV and TDSR; URA caveat data for Caribbean, Reflections, Corals and The Reef at King's Dock compiled in our own resale dataset; Keppel Corporation corporate history and BCA award records for developer track record; PropertyInsider.sg's own land sales and resale datasets. Indicative pricing is produced by our own resale-anchored estimate, since no land tender exists for this site to apply our usual breakeven methodology; it is not developer-confirmed and no price list exists. Figures marked (est.) are estimates and subject to change. Past performance of Caribbean, Reflections, Corals and The Reef at King's Dock is not indicative of future results for The Island Residence. This page is research, not financial advice — verify independently before any decision. PropertyInsider.sg is an independent research publication and does not take developer fees for this coverage. The publisher’s agency is part of the developer’s appointed sales team for this project; that work sits outside the research desk and does not change our figures or verdict. See our editorial policy.

Page history

• 3 Oct 2026 — Wording pass. Region names now use URA's CCR, RCR and OCR labels, and several phrases were simplified for first-read clarity. No figure, date or source changed.
• 2 Oct 2026 — Link to the project’s appointed developer sales website reworded, so readers can see where to register interest, get the e-brochure and book a showflat viewing. Disclosure line updated to state that the publisher’s agency is part of the appointed sales team. No figure, table, source or FAQ answer changed.
• 30 Sep 2026 — Launch ranges of neighbouring projects quoted in the text updated to the PropertyInsider.sg cost model.
• 9 Sep 2026 — Plain-English pass. Prose rewritten for shorter sentences and first-read clarity, jargon explained at first use, a short-version summary added before the FAQ, and em dashes removed from body prose. No figure, date, table row, source, link or FAQ answer was changed in substance.
• 20 Aug 2026 — In depth research read published, built from an audited internal Jamus Property research briefing (Edition 1, Aug 2026) laundered to the public standard: proprietary JPS-6 scores, agent scripts and client-facing "do not quote" figures removed throughout. Pricing rebuilt from the resale curve rather than a land-cost breakeven, since this site was never tendered — indicative range reconciled to this site's own $2,800–$3,300 psf estimate. MRT distances recomputed from our own coordinates (Telok Blangah 0.8km/12min, HarbourFront 1.1km/15min, Keppel 2.2km) with an added note on the bridge-access gap between straight-line and actual walking distance. School distances and 2025–2026 Primary 1 ballot figures restated from our own dataset. Competing supply section added, referencing Telok Blangah Road GLS and the newly-awarded Berlayar Drive GLS at their own site-tracked estimates.
• Next scheduled update — the day the developer releases an official price list, unit mix or site plan, when the indicative range is replaced with actual figures and a Details/stack section is added.

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