The Island Residence

The research read

The Island Residence is an 84-unit, 99-year leasehold condominium on Keppel Island, District 4 (Rest of Central Region), by Keppel Bay Pte Ltd, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Keppel Land Limited. It is Singapore's only private-island condominium address outside Sentosa Cove. The site is Keppel Land's own retained landbank rather than a Government Land Sales parcel, so no land psf ppr figure exists to benchmark it against. Preview is targeted for Q4 2026 (est.), with TOP around 2031 (est.); no official price list, unit mix or floor plans have been released.

Three things separate it from the rest of the 2026 pipeline. It sits on the last of two company-held sites remaining from Keppel Land's two-decade conversion of Keppel Island, following Caribbean (2004), Reflections (2011) and Corals (2016) — a fourth build on the same island by the same developer, not a first-time entrant. Its connectivity catalyst has already landed rather than being promised: Keppel MRT (CC30) opened on 12 July 2026, completing the Circle Line loop. And because it never went through a state tender, our own indicative pricing range has nothing to anchor to except the resale market next door — an honest gap that shapes most of what follows.

An island address is genuinely unrepeatable. It is also not a price. There was no tender here, so there is no land cost to anchor an estimate to, which makes the first question what such an estimate is worth at all. After that: how far the nearest MRT really is once you account for a single bridge on and off Keppel Island, what a sub-2% gross yield does to an investor case, and who can realistically fund an all-large-format launch with no confirmed entry point.

A company landbank, not a state tender

1. 2004Caribbean at Keppel Bay TOPs969 units, Keppel Land's first residential release on the island, converting former shipyard land at Keppel Harbour.
2. 2011Reflections at Keppel Bay TOPs1,129 units designed by Daniel Libeskind — six curved towers and villas, the island's largest release to date.
3. 2016Corals at Keppel Bay TOPs366 units, the island's third and lowest-rise release.
4. 2024The Reef at King's Dock TOPs429 units, a joint venture between Keppel Land and Mapletree — the island's most recent completion, and its highest-priced.
5. Q4 2026 (est.)The Island Residence previews84 units — the last of two parcels Keppel Land retained from the original conversion, on our own working estimate.

Every prior release on this island has been built by the same developer, and every one still trades actively in the resale market today. That execution record is real and evidenced. What it cannot do is substitute for a land price — this parcel was never tendered on the open market, so there is no psf-per-plot-ratio figure to compare against a breakeven, the way every Government Land Sales site on this website can be. Any indicative pricing here is anchored to what the island's own resale stock already commands, not to a land cost.

With no land cost to anchor to, what sets the price?

Because there is no tender to reference, we build our range the only defensible way available: from what Keppel Island's own existing stock is transacting at today. In our own dataset, trailing twelve months to August 2026:

The pattern is a clean, ascending curve by TOP age — each newer release on the island has cleared the last, and The Reef at King's Dock, the newest completed project, is already trading close to $2,500 psf on average with individual transactions above $2,700. Our own indicative range of $2,800–$3,300 psf sits above that curve, which is consistent with being the newest release and the only one that is a genuine island address rather than a Keppel Bay Vista-facing block. It is our own estimate, not developer-confirmed, and it is built differently from every land-sale project on this site: there is no breakeven walk behind it because there is no land cost to walk from. Full methodology at our pricing methodology, with the caveat that this is the one project on our tracker where that methodology cannot apply in its usual form.

Closer on the map than on foot

• Telok Blangah (CC28), Circle Line — about 0.8km / 12 minutes (est.) in a straight line. This is the closest station by coordinates, and the figure our own dataset uses. It assumes a direct line across water the actual footpath doesn't take.
• HarbourFront (NE1/CC29), North East Line and Circle Line — about 1.1km / 15 minutes (est.) in a straight line, but the more likely practical route. Keppel Island is reached by a single bridge, so the real walking route to either station runs around the island's access road rather than as the crow flies — which typically favours HarbourFront's more direct approach over Telok Blangah's shorter straight-line distance. Verify the actual route with OneMap or on foot before treating either figure as fixed; this is one project where the gap between map distance and walking distance is genuinely large enough to matter.
• Keppel (CC30), Circle Line — about 2.2km by coordinates. Opened 12 July 2026, completing the Circle Line loop between HarbourFront and Marina Bay. It is too far to walk to from the island and functions as a precinct-level catalyst (see below), not a resident's daily station.
• By road, the Ayer Rajah Expressway gives direct access from Keppel Bay Vista, with the CBD and Marina Coastal Expressway a short drive away.

The slippage test here runs the other way from most launches: there is no future line to slip, because the relevant line has already opened. What can still change is the walking figure itself — neither station distance above has been independently routed door-to-door, and we'd rather understate the case than round a bridge crossing down to a straight line.

A catalyst next door, not underneath

• Circle Line Stage 6 (delivered 12 July 2026). Keppel, Cantonment and Prince Edward Road stations completed the Circle Line loop between HarbourFront and Marina Bay — a dated, funded commitment that has already happened, source: LTA.
• HarbourFront Centre redevelopment (targeted H1 2031). A 33-storey mixed-use tower with Grade A office space and a 13,000 sqm elevated waterfront park, by Mapletree, closing for redevelopment in H2 2026.
• Berlayar Estate masterplan (unveiled 23 September 2025). Roughly 10,000 homes — about 7,000 public and 3,000 private — on the former Keppel Club site, the first phase of the Greater Southern Waterfront. Source: HDB.
• Greater Southern Waterfront (multi-decade programme). Around 1,000 hectares freed by the relocation of container port operations to Tuas — genuine, but a 20–30 year horizon rather than a near-term price driver.

What this is: a mature, established residential enclave benefiting from a neighbouring transformation, not a first-mover site inside the construction zone itself. The Island Residence is not part of the Berlayar Estate redevelopment — it sits on Keppel Land's separate, already-built-out Keppel Bay enclave next door. The catalyst is borrowed, and worth counting as borrowed.

Schools and daily life on the island

On our own schools dataset, Blangah Rise Primary School sits about 1.41km from the site and Radin Mas Primary School about 1.89km — both straight-line distances from OneMap geocodes. Neither falls inside the 1km priority band. MOE measures priority on its own basis and the final site boundary is not fixed, so confirm the current band on MOE SchoolFinder before anchoring a decision on it.

The ballot record shows two different pictures. Blangah Rise Primary did not ballot at any phase in the 2025 or 2026 Primary 1 exercises — vacancies exceeded applicants throughout, including 24 applicants for 60 Phase 1 vacancies in 2026. Radin Mas Primary did ballot in 2025, at Phase 2C, with 96 applications for 47 vacancies (a published result of SC<1km 56 applicants for 47 places). Being outside the 1km band did not stop Radin Mas from oversubscribing at a later phase — a reminder that band distance and demand are related but not identical. More on this pattern in our primary schools and new launch demand research.

What exists today rather than what is planned: VivoCity and the wider HarbourFront retail cluster sit within the precinct, Southern Ridges and Mount Faber Park connect to Telok Blangah Hill Park and HortPark via a ten-kilometre trail network, and the Marina at Keppel Bay's existing F&B cluster already operates at the water's edge. The HarbourFront Centre office and retail expansion adds to this from H1 2031, but a buyer moving in earlier inherits the precinct as it stands today, not as it will look once that lands.

Sub-2% yield: what that means for an investor

This is the section most scarcity-led launch material skips. Keppel Island's existing stock does have an active, demonstrated rental and resale market — our own dataset shows Caribbean, Reflections, Corals and The Reef at King's Dock all transacting steadily, with win rates on resale (share of transactions selling above their original purchase price) running from 76.6% at the oldest project to 100% at the newest. But an all-large-format, boutique 84-unit launch at an estimated $2,800–$3,300 psf structurally caps what running yield can do: large-format units carry a lower yield than compact stock because rent per square foot rises far more slowly than purchase price per square foot as unit size increases. On the numbers this site's own estimate implies, a gross yield in the region of 1.9%–2.2% (est.), and meaningfully lower again after non-owner-occupier property tax, maintenance and a vacancy allowance, is a reasonable planning assumption — below what compact stock elsewhere in District 4 or the wider RCR typically achieves today.

An investor should be clear about which argument is doing the work here. The thesis has to be capital scarcity — 84 units, an island address that structurally cannot be repeated — and not running income. Anyone weighing this primarily for yield should run their own entry price through our new launch ROI calculator against a compact-unit alternative before committing.

Who buys an 84-unit island launch

The buyers who fit are right-sizers and legacy buyers coming from a large landed or GCB-adjacent home who want a lower-maintenance, high-privacy address without leaving the city, and who are drawn to the idea that there will only ever be 84 of these; long-horizon holders convinced by the Greater Southern Waterfront's scale who are prepared to hold through a 15–20 year maturation rather than expect near-term uplift; and buyers for whom Keppel Land's four-for-four delivery record on this exact island matters more than a land-cost discount. It does not suit a buyer who needs a confirmed price today, none exists, or whose case rests on rental income, where the arithmetic here does not hold. Nor does it suit a family whose decision turns on a 1km school-priority band, since neither nearby primary school currently falls inside it, or a buyer whose entire budget comes from an HDB flat sale with no top-up: an all-large-format, no-confirmed-entry-point launch on a scarce 84-unit site sits structurally outside that bridge.

Duties and financing at this quantum

This is expected to be a private condominium, so there is no income ceiling, no MOP gate and no Mortgage Servicing Ratio — the binding constraint is the Total Debt Servicing Ratio, capped at 55% of gross monthly income and stress-tested at 4% regardless of the actual package rate secured. LTV runs up to 75% on a first housing loan, 45% on a second and 35% on a third or subsequent loan, with at least 5% of the price in cash on a first property. Singapore Citizens pay no Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty on a first property, 20% on a second and 30% on a third or beyond; Permanent Residents pay 5% on a first and 30% on a second; foreign buyers pay 60%. Buyer's Stamp Duty applies on the tiered scale to 6% of the purchase price. Under the schedule effective 4 July 2025, Seller's Stamp Duty runs four years from the date the option is exercised, not from TOP.

Because no price list, unit sizes or configurations have been released, it is not yet possible to model a representative unit's absolute quantum with any honesty — the psf range above is the only number that exists. Progressive payments for a build-under-construction purchase follow the standard shape: 5% on booking, 15% plus BSD at exercise within three weeks, then staged draws against construction milestones, with the balance at TOP and CSC. Maintenance and property tax begin at TOP, not at purchase. The concrete step available now is an in-principle approval, so once a price list lands the affordable unit types are known rather than guessed. Work the mechanics through our affordability calculator, stamp duty calculator and progressive payment calculator, and see our TDSR guide for the mechanics. None of this is a rate prediction, stress-test any illustrative figure against your own bank's current assumptions.

The risks specific to Keppel Island

An 84-unit island launch carries an unusual risk profile. These are the parts we would want a buyer to look at hardest.

• HighNo price list and no land-cost anchorEverything about the eventual product other than the developer's track record is an estimate. Because this was never a Government Land Sales site, there is no psf-ppr figure to sanity-check a breakeven against — unlike every other launch on this tracker. Our $2,800–$3,300 psf range is built entirely from the island's own resale curve and is not developer-confirmed.
• HighStructurally narrow buyer poolWith no unit mix released and an estimated psf range that implies a large quantum on any plausible size, this sits well outside the typical HDB-upgrader bridge. The mitigant is that the product appears deliberately positioned for a right-sizer or legacy buyer rather than a mainstream upgrader — a narrow pool by design is a different risk than a narrow pool by miscalculation, but it still limits who a seller can find at exit.
• ModerateLonger walk to the nearest MRT than most 2026 launchesEven on the more favourable straight-line reading, this project's stations sit materially further than Telok Blangah Road GLS's roughly 5-minute walk or Berlayar Drive GLS's roughly 6-minute walk nearby (see below). The island's single bridge access likely makes the real walk longer still. The mitigant is that Keppel MRT's July 2026 opening has already strengthened the wider precinct's network position, even though it is not itself a walkable station from here.
• ModerateCompressed rental yieldAn estimated 1.9%–2.2% gross sits below what compact District 4 or RCR stock typically achieves. That is the arithmetic of a large-format, high-quantum boutique launch, not a defect — but it means an income-led case does not hold here.
• ModerateNo school within the 1km priority bandOn current, unverified-against-MOE distances, both nearby primary schools sit in the 1–2km band. Confirm via MOE SchoolFinder before treating this as fixed, but plan around it rather than assume it will resolve favourably.
• LowAdjacent construction activityThe HarbourFront Centre redevelopment (through H1 2031) and the wider Berlayar Estate build-out will be visible and periodically audible from parts of the island. Both are temporary and resolve well inside a typical hold period.

What else is competing nearby

Two Government Land Sales sites in the immediate Berlayar/Telok Blangah corridor give a genuine, land-cost-anchored alternative to this project's estimate-only pricing. Telok Blangah Road GLS (745 units, awarded 20 November 2025 to Kingsford Development at $1,326 psf ppr) carries our own breakeven-derived indicative range of $2,810–$3,180 psf, with a roughly 5-minute walk to Telok Blangah MRT. Berlayar Drive GLS (415 units, awarded 4 August 2026 to a consortium of Intrepid Investments and GuocoLand at $2,700 psf ppr — the most recent land sale in the precinct at the time of writing) carries an indicative range of $3,100–$3,510 psf, roughly 6 minutes from the same station. Both sit close to, or above, our own resale-anchored estimate for The Island Residence, despite offering a materially shorter walk to the MRT and — unlike this project — an actual land cost an outside reader can check. Keppel Island is not competing on psf value or walk time against either of these; it is competing purely on being an island.

What to watch for

1. 12 Jul 2026Keppel MRT (CC30) opensCompletes the Circle Line loop between HarbourFront and Marina Bay — the connectivity catalyst has already landed.
2. 4 Aug 2026Berlayar Drive GLS awarded$2,700 psf ppr to Intrepid Investments and GuocoLand — the newest land-cost data point in the immediate precinct, useful as a benchmark even though it isn't this project's own land cost.
3. Q4 2026 (target)Preview and first price listOur own working estimate, not developer-confirmed. This is when the estimates on this page become facts, and when this section will be rewritten around actual figures.
4. H1 2031 (target)HarbourFront Centre reopens33-storey mixed-use tower with Grade A office space and a 13,000 sqm park, by Mapletree.
5. ~2031 (est.)Estimated TOPAssuming a Q4 2026 launch and a typical four-to-five-year boutique low-rise build.

Our read on The Island Residence

The trade, stated as a trade: you pay a price with no land-cost anchor behind it and no confirmed unit mix, for the only private-island condominium address in Singapore outside Sentosa Cove, built by a developer with a clean four-for-four delivery record on this exact island, with its one committed transport catalyst already delivered rather than promised. That suits a right-sizer or legacy buyer who wants scarcity and privacy and is not counting on a psf discount to get there, and a long-horizon holder who reads the Greater Southern Waterfront as a multi-decade tailwind rather than a near-term driver. It does not suit a buyer who needs a confirmed price before committing emotionally, an investor whose case rests on yield, or a family anchored to a specific primary school's priority band.

Two numbers will decide whether it works. The first is the eventual price list against our $2,800–$3,300 (est.) range — near the bottom, the scarcity premium over Keppel Island's own resale curve is modest and defensible; well above it, a buyer is paying for the island story on top of an already-full precinct price. The second is day-one take-up against The Reef at King's Dock's precedent, the island's most recent and highest-priced release, which will show whether 84 units at this level clears comfortably or needs time. We will re-check both the day the price list lands. Wider context sits in our GLS pipeline tracker and our primary schools and new launch demand research. The project site at the-island-residence.sg carries the developer's own naming, preview and launch updates as they are confirmed; this page remains the independent yardstick against which to read them.

Sources: LTA news releases on Circle Line Stage 6 (24 June–24 July 2026); HDB press release "HDB Unveils Masterplan for Berlayar Estate" (23 September 2025); URA Government Land Sales tender and award records for Telok Blangah Road and Berlayar Drive; Ministry of Education school data and 2025–2026 Primary 1 registration results compiled in our own schools dataset; IRAS and MAS for stamp duty, LTV and TDSR; URA caveat data for Caribbean, Reflections, Corals and The Reef at King's Dock compiled in our own resale dataset; Keppel Corporation corporate history and BCA award records for developer track record; PropertyInsider.sg's own land sales and resale datasets. Indicative pricing is produced by our own resale-anchored estimate, since no land tender exists for this site to apply our usual breakeven methodology; it is not developer-confirmed and no price list exists. Figures marked (est.) are estimates and subject to change. Past performance of Caribbean, Reflections, Corals and The Reef at King's Dock is not indicative of future results for The Island Residence. This page is research, not financial advice — verify independently before any decision. PropertyInsider.sg is an independent research publication and does not take developer fees for this coverage; how citations to project websites are handled is explained in our editorial policy.

Page history

• 20 Aug 2026 — In depth research read published, built from an audited internal Jamus Property research briefing (Edition 1, Aug 2026) laundered to the public standard: proprietary JPS-6 scores, agent scripts and client-facing "do not quote" figures removed throughout. Pricing rebuilt from the resale curve rather than a land-cost breakeven, since this site was never tendered — indicative range reconciled to this site's own $2,800–$3,300 psf estimate. MRT distances recomputed from our own coordinates (Telok Blangah 0.8km/12min, HarbourFront 1.1km/15min, Keppel 2.2km) with an added note on the bridge-access gap between straight-line and actual walking distance. School distances and 2025–2026 Primary 1 ballot figures restated from our own dataset. Competing supply section added, referencing Telok Blangah Road GLS and the newly-awarded Berlayar Drive GLS at their own site-tracked estimates.
• Next scheduled update — the day the developer releases an official price list, unit mix or site plan, when the indicative range is replaced with actual figures and a Details/stack section is added.

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