How many launches sit within 1km of a hard-to-enter school?
Forty-two of the 107 projects we track sit within a straight-line 1km of at least one very-high-demand primary school. Another count, 87, sit within 2km. By very-high-demand we mean a school whose 2025 ballot reached Phase 2B or earlier, or which had to ballot even among citizens living within 1km at Phase 2C.
That is why we built the primary schools map. In 2025, 109 of the 179 schools taking Primary 1 pupils had to hold a ballot in at least one phase. At 64 schools, the Phase 2C ballot cut into citizens inside the 1km band. When more than a third of the launch pipeline overlaps the 1km circles of the tightest schools, school demand stops being a soft selling point. It becomes something you can measure.
- Schools that balloted in at least one phase, 2025 (of 179 with P1 intake)109 schools
- Tracked launches within a straight-line 1km of a very-high-demand school42 of 107
- Median avg psf, selling OCR launches — ≤1km of such a school vs the rest$2,297 vs $2,197 · +4.6%
- Same comparison in the RCR — the premium inverts$2,459 vs $2,570 · −4.3%
- Median HDB upgrader share — ≤1km of such a school vs the rest34.7% vs 27.5% · +7.2 pts
- Schools already balloting at Phase 2A in the live 2026 exercise35 schools
Six terms used in this article
- P1 registrationThe yearly exercise in which children are given places in Primary 1
- PhasesThe order in which places are given out. Phase 1 is for siblings, 2A for old boys and girls, 2B for volunteers, and 2C for families with no link to the school
- BallotA draw held when more children apply in a phase than there are places
- The 1km bandIn a ballot, citizens living within 1km of the school go first, then those 1km to 2km away, then everyone else
- psfPer square foot. A home's price divided by its floor area
- CCR / RCR / OCRThe prime centre, the city fringe, and the suburbs
Why does school distance move property demand?
Because MOE wrote distance into the admission rules. Places are filled in phases. Phase 1 is for siblings. Phase 2A is for former pupils and school-community ties. Phase 2B is for parent volunteers and community links. Phase 2C is for households with no prior tie. And 2C Supplementary picks up anyone still without a place. Whenever more children apply than there are places in a phase, MOE holds a ballot. Inside that ballot, priority runs by citizenship and then by distance from home to school. Singapore citizens within 1km go first. Then those 1km to 2km away. Then those beyond 2km. Permanent residents come after that, in the same order of distance. The official distance uses Singapore Land Authority address points. You can check any address with the OneMap School Query tool.
That gives us something rare. Here is one thing about a location you can actually measure. And fresh figures come out every year. A condo's claim to be "near good schools" can be tested against how the nearest school's ballot actually ran. In 2025, the tightest open-phase contests in the country were at Princess Elizabeth Primary, with 5.66 applicants per Phase 2C place. Then Nan Hua Primary at 4.05, South View Primary at 3.78, Northland Primary at 3.46 and Chongfu School at 3.45. Every one sits in an older family estate, in the suburbs or the west. None is in a prime district.
How did we measure it?
We built a dataset of all 182 MOE schools that admit pupils at Primary 1. That is the 179 mainstream primaries, plus three through-train schools that take P1 pupils: Catholic High, CHIJ St. Nicholas Girls' and Maris Stella High. School details come from MOE's General Information of Schools dataset on data.gov.sg. We mapped every campus, including the two that have moved to new sites. Then we added each school's places, applicants and ballot record. That covers every phase of the finished 2025 exercise and the ongoing 2026 one.
Update, 27 Aug 2026. The figures in this article describe the 2025 P1 exercise and use the demand rating we published at the time. Since then the 2026 exercise has completed and we have revised the rating so that it is driven by Phase 2C alone — the phase where home address decides the outcome. Balloting at Phases 1, 2A and 2B no longer lifts a school’s tier, and a 2C ballot that reaches citizens within 1km now needs applicants of at least 1.5× vacancies to count as very high. On the current 2026 basis the split is 45 very high, 26 high, 40 moderate and 68 with vacancies, and 80 of 179 schools balloted at 2C. The price and buyer-profile cuts below have not been recomputed against the new ratings, so read them as the 2025 picture. The primary schools map always shows the current basis.
Each school then gets one of four demand ratings, computed from the 2025 record. Very high means it balloted at Phase 2B or earlier, or its 2C ballot reached citizens within 1km. That is 71 schools. High means Phase 2C balloted at all, which is 16 schools. Moderate means it only balloted at 2C Supplementary. Or demand at 2C reached 0.8 times the places on offer. That is 25 schools. The other 67 had places left over all the way through. Three schools with paused intake are left out of the tiering. Distances to the 107 projects are straight-line estimates from map points. The full dataset is our own compilation, shown on the primary schools map.
Where does the school premium show up, and where does it not?
| Segment | ≤1km of very-high-demand school | All other selling launches | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| OCR | $2,297 psf (n=12) | $2,197 psf (n=13) | +4.6% |
| RCR | $2,459 psf (n=11) | $2,570 psf (n=16) | −4.3% |
| CCR | $3,444 psf (n=3) | $3,264 psf (n=15) | +5.5% (small n) |
The cleanest test is to compare projects on sale now within one part of the market. Otherwise the price differences between the prime centre, the city fringe and the suburbs would drown out the signal.
In the suburbs, the result is what you would expect. In family estates, a launch inside the 1km band of a heavily balloted school commands roughly a hundred dollars more per square foot at the median. That is $2,297 against $2,197, a gap of about 4.6%.
The city-fringe result is the corrective. There the gap inverts, to $2,459 against $2,570, or −4.3%. The reason is that city-fringe pricing is set by other things: waterfront positioning, being next to an MRT interchange, and closeness to the CBD. None of those line up with school catchments. Several of the priciest city-fringe launches sit in areas with no heavily balloted primary school at all. So beware anyone who quotes one “school premium” for the whole of Singapore. That average hides the part of the market where it is missing.
Do these schools change who buys, rather than what they pay?
Yes, and more clearly. Prices are a blunt measure, because they capture every feature of a home at once. Who buys is sharper. Among selling launches in our tracker, the median share of buyers with HDB addresses is 34.7% at projects within 1km of a very-high-demand school. At other projects it is 27.5%. That is a gap of about 7 percentage points. We use the HDB address share as a proxy for upgrader families. And that is exactly the group for whom the 1km band is worth real money: households with children approaching Primary 1, where an address can stand in for years of volunteering or an old-school connection. It shapes what developers must plan for, too. Upgrader-heavy projects concentrate demand in three- and four-bedders, and in total prices reachable from HDB sale proceeds. Our budget matcher makes that visible project by project.
One thing the school story does not move is how fast a project sells. Among suburban launches on sale, a touch less is sold near these schools. It is 90.8% against 94.7%. Projects near good schools tend to price their advantage in, rather than leave it as a discount. So they sell at a similar pace, not a faster one. The proximity is charged for, not given away.
What is 2026 already showing?
A twist. In April 2026, MOE said it would slowly cut Primary 1 places at most schools. Fewer children are being born. Fewer places means tougher odds, even if the same number of families apply. The early evidence is in our data. At our last refresh, 35 schools had already balloted at Phase 2A, before the open phases even began. For buyers, that cuts both ways. Fewer children means fewer families competing, over time. But smaller intakes mean the 1km band matters more in any given year. The schools map shows each school's live 2026 numbers beside its 2025 record as each phase concludes. Our price-trends dashboard now carries the school-proximity cut of the pricing data too.
What does this data not show?
Three limits, stated plainly. First, this is a correlation, not proof of a school premium. Schools with brutal ballots sit in established estates that are well served in other ways. Some of the price gap near them is the estate, not the school. Splitting by segment reduces that problem but does not remove it. Second, straight-line distance is not the official distance. MOE measures from SLA address points. A project we estimate at 0.97km can fall outside 1km officially. Every distance on this site carries that caveat, and the OneMap School Query is the only check that counts. Third, these tiers are histories, not promises. Ballot outcomes move with cohort sizes, intake changes and how an estate ages. Three schools have stopped taking Primary 1 pupils while they move site. A school's tier can change in a single cycle. Buying within 1km of a hot school improves your odds. But it promises nothing. At the tightest schools, Phase 2C ballots even among citizens inside 1km.
What does it mean for buyers and upgraders?
The short version — read this first
Six things to take away.
What we found
- The overlap is large42 of the 107 projects we track sit within 1km of a school with a very tight ballot. 87 sit within 2km
- Why distance mattersMOE wrote it into the rules. In a ballot, citizens within 1km are admitted first
- The price premium is real but conditionalIn the suburbs, about +4.6% ($2,297 vs $2,197 psf). On the city fringe it reverses, to −4.3%
- The clearer effect is on who buysHDB upgraders are 34.7% of buyers near these schools, against 27.5% elsewhere
- It does not sell fasterSuburban launches near these schools were 90.8% sold against 94.7% elsewhere. The advantage gets priced in, not given away
- Our own honest limitOur distances are straight-line estimates. MOE measures differently, and only its measurement counts
So what should you do with this?
- If one school is the goal, check its actual ballot record phase by phase, not the marketing copy.
- Check your exact address on MOE's OneMap School Query. A project we estimate at 0.97km can fall outside 1km officially.
- Remember you must live there for 30 months to keep the distance priority. Build that into your timeline before you buy.
If one specific school is the goal, work backwards from the ballot record rather than the marketing copy. Check that school's phase-by-phase ratios on the schools map. Confirm the official distance for the exact address with OneMap School Query. And treat the 30-month occupation requirement as part of your timeline, because you must live there that long to keep the distance priority. That interacts directly with BTO or resale timing and with any HDB sale, which our sell HDB, buy new launch guide works through.
If the school is only a nice-to-have, the city-fringe numbers above are the reminder that you are not automatically paying for it everywhere. And if you are buying as an investment, the upgrader gap is the practical takeaway. Suburban projects near these schools draw a structurally deeper pool of buyers who intend to live there. In the past, that has made family-sized homes easier to sell on. You can test that against real exits in our resale exit dashboard.
Want a worked example? Our analysis of whether Thomson Reserve is a good investment decodes Ai Tong School's 2025 ballot phase by phase. It is a city-fringe project 0.57km from that school, so the regional inversion above matters directly there. For how a single 1km claim survives contact with the ballot data, see our Holland Plain first-mover analysis, which tests the Methodist Girls' School case around Amberwood at Holland.
Because the rules give priority by distance. When a school gets more applicants than places in a phase, MOE holds a ballot. Singapore citizens living within 1km are admitted first, then those within 1km to 2km, then everyone else. So an address inside the 1km band of an oversubscribed school is a measurable advantage. Families pay attention to it when choosing where to live. In 2025, 109 of 179 schools balloted in at least one phase.
Take suburban launches on sale now. Those within 1km of a very-high-demand school sell at a median average of about $2,297 psf. Those further away sell at $2,197 psf. That is a gap of roughly 4.6%. On the city fringe the pattern flips. There it is $2,459 psf near such schools against $2,570 psf elsewhere. Other things drive prices there. So the premium is real in some places. It is not there everywhere.
In our tracker, currently selling suburban launches within a straight-line 1km of a very-high-demand school transact at a median average of about $2,297 psf. Suburban launches that are not sit at $2,197 psf. That is a gap of roughly 4.6%. On the city fringe the pattern inverts, at $2,459 psf near such schools against $2,570 psf elsewhere, because other things dominate pricing there. So the premium is real but conditional, not universal.
Yes, and more clearly than they change the price. Among currently selling projects in the tracker, the median HDB upgrader share is about 34.7% at launches within 1km of a very-high-demand primary school, versus about 27.5% at other launches — roughly 7 percentage points higher. Upgrader families with children approaching P1 age are the buyer group for whom the 1km band has direct cash-equivalent value.
Yes, and more clearly than they change the price. Look at projects on sale now. Near a very-high-demand school, HDB upgraders are a median 34.7% of buyers. Elsewhere they are 27.5%. That is roughly 7 percentage points higher. Upgrader families with children approaching Primary 1 are the group for whom the 1km band is worth real money.
In PropertyInsider.sg's tiering, a school is very high demand when its last completed P1 exercise saw balloting at Phase 2B or earlier, or a Phase 2C ballot that reached Singapore Citizens living within 1km — meaning even the best-placed applicants were not safe. 71 of 182 schools met that bar on 2025 data. High demand means Phase 2C balloted for any group; moderate means balloting only at 2C Supplementary or 2C demand at 0.8× vacancies or above; the rest had vacancies available throughout.
We call a school very high demand in two cases. Either it balloted at Phase 2B or earlier. Or its Phase 2C ballot reached citizens living within 1km. That second case means even the best-placed applicants were not safe. On 2025 data, 71 of 182 schools met that bar. High demand means Phase 2C balloted for any group. Moderate means it balloted only at 2C Supplementary. Or demand at 2C hit 0.8 times the places on offer. The rest had places left over.
MOE's official home-school distance uses Singapore Land Authority address-point data, checkable address-by-address with the OneMap School Query tool. Our own distances are straight-line estimates from map points, and they are a rough guide only. A project we put at 0.97km can fall outside 1km on the official measure, or the other way round. So check your exact address on OneMap before you count on being inside 1km or 2km.
Ours are. MOE measures from Singapore Land Authority address points. You can check any address with the OneMap School Query tool. Ours are straight-line estimates from map points, and only a rough guide. A project we estimate at 0.97km can fall outside 1km on the official measurement, or the reverse. So check your exact address on OneMap before you count on being inside 1km or 2km.
No. Ballot results shift with the number of children, with MOE intake changes, and with who lives in an estate. MOE cut Primary 1 places at most schools from 2026, as cohorts shrink. And in the 2026 exercise, 35 schools had already balloted at Phase 2A at our last refresh. Three schools have stopped taking pupils from 2025 to 2027 while they move. Those are Damai, Kranji and Townsville Primary. A demand tier is a documented history, not a guarantee.
No. Ballot results shift with the number of children, with MOE intake changes, and with the age of an estate. MOE trimmed Primary 1 intake across most schools from 2026 as cohorts shrink. In the live 2026 exercise, 35 schools had already balloted at Phase 2A at our last refresh. And three schools have stopped taking pupils from 2025 to 2027 while they move. Those are Damai, Kranji and Townsville Primary. A demand tier is a documented history, not a guarantee.
Disclaimer. This article is independent research published for general information and education. It is not financial, property or education advice, and it does not consider your objectives or circumstances. All distances are straight-line estimates from coordinates, are not the official MOE home-school distance, and carry no guarantee of accuracy — verify any specific address with the OneMap School Query tool before relying on 1km/2km status. Ballot statistics describe past registration exercises and do not predict future outcomes; medians are computed over small samples and may not be representative. Figures marked (est.) are estimates. PropertyInsider.sg is an independent research publication; our editorial and disclosure practices are set out in our editorial policy.
Update history
- The 2026 P1 exercise completed, so the schools dataset now rates demand on the 2026 record rather than 2025. The rating itself was revised at the same time: it is computed from Phase 2C alone, balloting at Phases 1, 2A and 2B no longer affects the tier, and the top tier now requires a 2C ballot reaching citizens within 1km together with applicants of at least 1.5× vacancies. The article’s price and buyer-profile analysis still reflects the 2025 exercise and the previous rating.
- Article published alongside the launch of the primary schools map, based on the completed 2025 P1 exercise, 2026 exercise data through Phase 2A, and PropertyInsider.sg's project dataset (updated 16 July 2026). Next scheduled update: after MOE releases 2026 Phase 2B and 2C outcomes.
