Dunearn House: how 210 buyers chose, layout by layout

How many units did Dunearn House sell at launch?

Dunearn House sold 210 of its 380 units, or 55.3%, as at 27 July 2026, two days after booking day. But the headline is the least interesting part. The price list splits the project into ten layouts, and take-up ranged from a complete sell-out to 14%. That spread does not line up with price the way launch commentary usually assumes.

The project sits on Dunearn Road in District 11, on a 99-year lease. It is the first private housing development inside the Bukit Timah Turf City area, built by Frasers Property, Sekisui House and CSC Land. URA awarded the site on 3 July 2025 at $1,410 psf per plot ratio. The price list runs from $1,475,000 to $4,653,000, or $2,799 to $3,382 psf.

What data does this analysis use?

Two sources, both dated 27 July 2026. The first is the developer's price list, which publishes a price band and a psf band for each of the ten layouts, alongside the size and the unit count. The second is the availability count per layout for the same date. Subtract availability from total units and you get units sold per layout. Those ten figures add up to 210, which matches the project total. Every clearance percentage here is arithmetic on those two numbers, not a model.

Where we quote an average price for Dunearn House, that figure is derived, and we mark it (est.) on first use. Caveats had not been lodged when we published, so no transacted average exists yet. Here is how we build ours. We take the midpoint of each layout's published band, weight it by the units actually sold in that layout, then add them up. The result is an indicative $3,125 psf (est.) and an average total price of about $2.71 million (est.). Treat both as the shape of the outcome, not a settled number. Expect the true average to shift once URA data catches up.

Figures for other projects, segment medians, land multiples and district resale returns come from our own compilation of 107 tracked launch and state land projects, updated 27 July 2026, and from our matched resale dataset. The methods behind our estimated launch prices are set out on our pricing methodology page.

Which layouts sold, and which did not?

Here is the whole price list with take-up attached. Read the last column downward and the pattern jumps out. It rises, peaks in the middle, then falls off a cliff at the bottom.

Grouped by bedroom count, the three bands separate cleanly. Three-bedroom formats sold 81 of 96 units, or 84.4%. Two-bedroom formats sold 88 of 176, exactly 50%. Four-bedroom formats sold 41 of 108, or 38%. So three-bedroom stock is a quarter of the project, but under a tenth of what is left unsold.

Why did the cheapest unit sell worst?

Because buyers were shopping for layout, not for the lowest price. The 527 sqft two-bedroom is the entry point at $1,475,000, and it cleared just 30%, the second-weakest result on the list. Two layouts up, the two-bedroom plus study starts at $1,899,000. That is $424,000 more, and it cleared 76%. Same bedroom count, same building, better take-up at a much bigger cheque.

The size ladder inside the two-bedroom band explains it. The 527 sqft entry layout is the most compact two-bedder in the project. At 614 sqft, the premium version buys 87 more square feet at the same bedroom count, and clearance improves to 40%. At 657 to 678 sqft, the plus-study version adds a usable third room, and clearance jumps to 76%. Buyers climbed the ladder as far as the layout kept improving. They paid roughly $2,800 to $3,260 psf to do it. None of that is a market shopping on lowest total price.

This matters because entry price gets quoted as though it drives demand at a launch. On this price list it did not. The layouts that sold out sat in the middle of the range. The strongest results in the project, the two layouts that cleared 100%, started at $2.597 million and $2.803 million. That is roughly $1.1 to $1.3 million above the entry unit. To see the same effect across a whole area rather than one project, our study of Lentor's first 39 profitable resales found three-bedders made up 59% of profitable exits there too.

Is there a $4 million ceiling?

The data suggests there is. The sharpest break sits between two adjacent four-bedroom layouts. The standard 1,184 sqft four-bedroom starts at $3,588,000 and cleared 83%. The 1,302 sqft four-bedroom premium starts at $4,037,000 and cleared 17%. That is a 66-point collapse for a step of $449,000, or about 12.5%.

On a per-square-foot basis the two are nearly identical at entry: $3,030 against $3,091. That is a difference of $61 psf, or 2%. So buyers were not rejecting the premium layout because it cost more per square foot. They were rejecting it because it crossed a total-price line. Adding a study to reach $4,283,000 did not help either. That layout cleared 14%.

Add it up. 156 of the 210 sales, or 74%, landed in layouts whose entry price sat between $1.899 million and $3.588 million. Only 11 units, or 5.2% of sales, went to layouts entering above $4 million, even though those layouts are 19% of the project. So the honest way to describe price sensitivity here is not that cheaper sells faster. It is that there is a band, roughly $1.9 million to $3.6 million, inside which buyers trade up freely. Above it, the pool of buyers thins out very fast. You can test your own budget against a specific stack on our affordability calculator.

Is Dunearn House expensive compared with other launches?

No. Against the market it sits in, this is not a premium-priced project. Our estimated average of $3,125 psf (est.) sits below the $3,264 psf median across the 19 prime-centre condominiums currently selling in our dataset. Its three-bedroom average of $3,131 psf sits almost exactly on the prime three-bedroom median of $3,130 psf.

The more interesting comparison runs across regions. Across 72 selling projects we track, the median average price is $3,264 psf in the prime centre, $2,504 on the city fringe and $2,226 in the suburbs. Those are wide gaps in the middle. At the edges they close hard. Dunearn House's cheapest square foot costs $2,799. Two-bedroom units at Vela Bay in District 16, a suburban project, average $2,855 psf. So a buyer's first square foot in prime Bukit Timah costs less than the typical square foot in a well-located East Coast launch.

That compression is real, but narrower than the headline framing suggests. Vela Bay is the dearest suburban project in our dataset, and the only one above $2,800 psf. The median suburban launch is still around $1,000 psf below the median prime one. What has closed is the gap between the cheapest prime unit and the dearest suburban one. Not the gap between the two markets. You can compare any two tracked projects on our prices by bedroom page, or filter by budget on the budget matcher.

Did the land price predict the launch price?

Closely. Dunearn House was awarded at $1,410 psf ppr in July 2025. Priced at an estimated $3,125 psf, that is a land-to-launch multiple of 2.22 times. Across the 55 launched projects in our land cost tracker, the median is 2.15 times. Across the 12 prime-centre projects in that set it is 2.11 times. So the developer priced slightly above the prime norm on the multiple, while still landing below the prime median price. That is what genuinely cheap land buys you.

We should also mark our own homework. Before launch we published an estimated range of $2,900 to $3,200 psf. The achieved average of $3,125 psf (est.) falls inside that range, 2.5% above its midpoint. What we got wrong was the width. The actual price list runs from $2,799 to $3,382, wider at both ends than we allowed for. We had not modelled the spread between a 527 sqft compact two-bedder and a 1,378 sqft premium plus study. Our estimate was right about the centre and too narrow about the extremes.

That has a live consequence next door. Dunearn Road (Plot 2), the plot beside it, was awarded at $1,625 psf ppr. That is 15.2% above Dunearn House. Apply the same 2.11 to 2.22 multiple band and you get roughly $3,430 to $3,610 psf for that site. Our published estimate for Plot 2 is currently $3,000 to $3,500 psf, which now looks low at the bottom end. We will revisit it in the next update to the GLS pipeline tracker.

What does this data not show?

Four honest limits.

The averages are derived, not transacted. Units sold per layout are exact. But every price average here is a sold-weighted midpoint of published bands, because caveats had not lodged when we published. Real transacted averages will differ. They will probably sit a little below our figure, because low floors and less favoured facings tend to move first within a band.

Two days is not a trend. This is a snapshot taken 48 hours after booking day. The 170 remaining units will not sit still. The four-bedroom premium stock in particular may move on a price change, a different payment scheme, or simply as buyers for larger prime homes work through it. A stalled layout in July is not a stalled layout in December.

The school claim needs checking, unit by unit. Bukit Timah's schools are why many buyers look here at all. So it matters that no MOE primary school falls within a straight-line 1 km of the site. Our estimates put Methodist Girls' School (Primary) at about 1.09 km, Raffles Girls' Primary School at 1.50 km and Pei Hwa Presbyterian Primary School at 1.97 km. Those are straight-line estimates from coordinates, not MOE's official home-to-school distance, and we cannot guarantee them. The band that counts for Primary 1 registration is measured from the child's registered home address, which is the individual unit's postal code. So the answer can differ between blocks in the same development. Check with the OneMap School Query tool, which uses MOE's official measurement. For the wider picture, see our primary schools map and our study of what P1 ballot data says about launch demand.

The district return figures count winners only. Completed condominiums in District 11 show a median return of 3.2% a year across 390 profitable matched exits in four projects. The median hold was 11.5 years and the median gain $628,000. That is above the 2.3% prime-centre median across 3,041 exits. But the dataset records profitable exits only. So those medians describe what successful sellers achieved. They never tell you the odds of achieving it. The full workings are on our resale exit dashboard.

What does this mean for the next prime-centre launch?

Three things carry forward.

First, the unsold stock is lopsided, and that shapes the resale picture in 2030 and 2031. Of the 170 units left, 67 are four-bedroom formats. Of those, 61 sit in the two premium layouts above $4 million. Another 46 are two-bedroom premium units. Only 15 are three-bedroom. So whoever buys a three-bedder here will be selling into scarcity within the development. Whoever buys a large premium four-bedder will be competing with whatever the developer has not cleared by completion.

Second, the prime centre still has depth to work through. Across 19 selling prime projects in our dataset, 2,193 of 6,065 units remain unsold. That is an absorption rate of 63.8%, against 81.5% across all 72 selling projects we track. District 11 alone has roughly 1,100 more units coming, through Bukit Timah Road, Peck Hay Road, The Serra Residences and Dunearn Road (Plot 2). Most of them sit on dearer land.

Third, watch the total price, not the price per square foot. If the next Turf City launch prices at the $3,430 to $3,610 psf its land rate implies, a 1,184 sqft four-bedroom there lands around $4.1 million to $4.3 million. That is precisely the band where take-up fell to 14% to 17% at Dunearn House. So either the layouts shrink or the take-up does. Our Dunearn House project page carries live pricing and sell-through as the data refreshes, and the launch map tracks every project in the pipeline.

The short version — read this first

Seven things to take away.

So what should you do with this?

• If you are shopping here, note what is left. Only 15 unsold units are three-bedrooms, and 61 sit in the two premium layouts above $4 million.
• Do not assume the smallest unit is the easy sell later. In this project it was the hardest.
• If schools are your reason for looking, check your exact unit with MOE's OneMap tool. No primary school falls within a straight-line 1 km of the site.

Frequently asked questions

Sources & methodology

Unit counts, size bands, price bands, psf bands and per-layout availability for Dunearn House are taken from the developer price list and availability schedule as at 27 July 2026. Units sold per layout is total units less published availability; the ten layout figures sum to 210, which reconciles with the project-level sell-through of 55.3%. Site facts are from URA's tender award notice of 3 July 2025 for the Dunearn Road parcel: site area 13,491.9 sqm, maximum permissible gross floor area 32,381 sqm, tendered price $491,454,208, or $1,410 psf per plot ratio, on a 99-year lease.

Segment medians, land-to-launch multiples, unsold-stock counts and comparative project figures are computed from PropertyInsider.sg's compilation of 107 tracked new launch and Government Land Sales projects, updated 27 July 2026. District and segment resale returns come from our matched resale-exit dataset covering January 2018 to April 2026, built from URA caveat data; it records profitable matched exits only. Estimated launch prices for pipeline sites follow our pricing model v2, documented at propertyinsider.sg/research/pricing-methodology. School distances are straight-line estimates computed from project and school coordinates against MOE's school register, not official home-school distances. Cross Island Line and Turf City station timing is as officially targeted by LTA for 2032.

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