1H 2026 GLS mid-year review: what developers actually paid

Developers kept paying up. In the prime centre they set two records in seven months. In the suburbs they bid with real discipline. This review scores all nine sites on the first-half 2026 list. It then does what tender reports do not. It links those land prices to what buyers will pay in 2027.

When the programme was announced in December 2025, the headline was supply. Nine Confirmed List sites, yielding roughly 4,575 homes. That is about 50% above the average half-year list of the past decade. It covered six private housing sites, one very large mixed-use site at Bayshore Drive, and two executive condominium plots. The open question was whether developers, already working through a heavy 2025 pipeline, would keep paying up for land. Six months on, we have most of the answer.

How did all nine sites turn out?

The table below tracks each site from announcement to outcome, as at 7 July 2026. Unit yields are the estimates published at announcement. Awarded figures are the top bids at tender close.

Where we show a range of units, it is because URA's announcement figure and our own tracking estimate differ. We show both until the tender documents settle it. The full pipeline lives in our GLS pipeline tracker. That includes 2025-programme sites now awarded, such as Bedok Rise at $1,330 psf ppr and Telok Blangah Road at $1,326.

Story one: why did prime central land reprice twice?

The defining result of the half was Newton. In November 2025, the Bukit Timah Road site beside Newton MRT drew eight bids. The top bid was a record $1,825 psf ppr, widely reported as about $1,820. That was the highest for a homes-only prime site since Cuscaden Road's $2,377 psf ppr in 2018. Seven months later, on 11 June 2026, the Peck Hay Road tender across the same area closed at $1,865 psf ppr. That was a $542.4 million bid from a CDL and Hong Realty joint venture. It came in about 2.2% above the Bukit Timah mark, and 8% clear of the second bidder.

Two details matter more than the headline. First, fewer developers showed up. Peck Hay Road drew four bids against eight at Bukit Timah Road, yet the winner still paid a premium. That is what it looks like when developers believe in one specific story, rather than getting carried away generally. The story here is URA's plan to add roughly 5,000 homes around Newton as a mixed-use urban village. Second, the launch price follows from the land price. Research desks put the future Peck Hay Road project at roughly $3,400 to $3,900 psf. DBS puts its breakeven around $3,200 to $3,300 psf. Our own cost model gives $3,040 to $3,440. It adds prime-centre building costs of $900 to $1,000 psf on top of the land. As we show below, recent launches have been clearing above raw cost-model bands.

Two more results complete the prime picture. River Valley Green (Parcel C) went at $1,730 psf ppr, and Holland Plain at $1,491. Three prime tenders, three firm results, all implying launch averages between the high $2,000s and high $3,000s psf. For context, look at what older condos nearby sell for. Our data puts the 2026 median in the Bishan, Thomson and Toa Payoh belt at about $2,060 psf. The strongest Newton-area resales sit near $2,500 psf. So the gap between prime new launches and prime resale is widening, not narrowing.

Story two: why did the old land-to-launch shorthand break?

Because building got much more expensive. There is a simple shorthand for this. Take the average launch price per square foot and divide it by the land price. For years it sat at 1.6 to 1.8 times for private state sites. The most important data point of 2026 says that shorthand no longer works. Building costs after the pandemic have permanently thickened everything that sits between the land price and the launch price.

Here is the evidence. The Bayshore Road site, the area's first state plot, was awarded in March 2026 at $1,388 psf ppr after eight bids. That was a record land rate for a suburban housing site. It launched as Vela Bay in April 2026. In our dataset, Vela Bay's averages by bedroom count run $2,811 to $2,977 psf, blending to about $2,860 psf. And it still sold 72% of its 515 units within its opening months. Divide $2,860 by $1,388 and the realised multiple is roughly 2.06 times.

It is not a one-off. Pinery Residences in Tampines sold 92.5% of its 588 units on its March launch weekend, at an average around $2,546 psf. Our dataset records a blended $2,534 psf across sold units, 93.7% sold to date. That pricing would have looked impossible against the 1.6 to 1.8 times arithmetic of its land vintage. Look across recent suburban launches in our data. For projects finishing in 2028 or later, the median average is about $2,280 psf. The message is the same. Building costs, borrowing costs and confident buyers have pushed the real multiple to 2.0 times and beyond in the best suburban spots.

This evidence is why we retired the old land-multiplier approach. Our cost model prices the building work directly. That is $750 to $850 psf for a standard private condo, and $900 to $1,000 for prime central. Add $100 to $150 more if the project sits over a station or a mall. It then adds a developer margin, and checks the answer against launch results like these. Vela Bay and Pinery are its first public tests. We log every future launch against our published estimate, so anyone can check it. Note: the model described here is the version published on 7 July 2026. It was superseded on 12 August 2026 by a version that starts from the developer's full breakeven cost. See the current pricing methodology.

Story three: what did the Bayshore Drive tender tell us?

Update, 16 July 2026. The tender described below has since closed. The confirmed result was a top bid of $2.128 billion, or $1,323 psf ppr, from a group led by Frasers Property. Our tender result analysis covers it in full. It also shows how it compares with the forecast below. The original pre-tender analysis is preserved as published.

Eight days from publication, the half-year's main event closes. Bayshore Drive is a 5.74-hectare mixed-use site on a 99-year lease, and the only mixed-use plot on the list. It will be built over the future Bedok South MRT station and a bus interchange. It has room for about 1,280 homes plus 22,500 sqm of shops and offices, or roughly 242,000 sq ft. The tender closes at noon on 15 July 2026.

Analysts expect a top bid of $1,150 to $1,300 psf ppr, from two to six bidders. Those will almost certainly be groups of developers, given a total price likely above $1.8 billion. Three comparable billion-dollar mixed-use sites have been sold before. Each drew exactly three bids. They were Tampines Avenue 11, now Parktown Residence, plus Chencharu Close and Hougang Central. Three is the base case here too.

Here is the arithmetic buyers should hold onto. Say the site is awarded near the middle of the analyst range, at $1,225 psf ppr.

• Our cost model at that land rate — with the $100–$150 psf integrated construction premium — gives a raw band of roughly $2,280–$2,670 psf.
• Two things push it higher. Vela Bay next door converted its land at about 2.06 times. And projects built directly over a station and a mall have always commanded a premium.
• Our published calibrated pre-tender estimate is $2,700–$3,000 psf◆ (Low confidence until the land price is known — full working on our methodology page).
• The comparison next door is stark either way. Bayshore Park, the 1,083-unit estate beside the site, trades at about $1,268 psf in 2026 in our resale data. So the future project could launch at more than double what homes a few hundred metres away resell for.

Demand-side support is real. Bedok's resale market gives upgraders real equity. Median prices for younger five-room flats crossed $1 million in 2025. More than 8,000 four- and five-room flats in Bedok and Tampines become free to sell between 2026 and 2028. At Pinery Residences, our data shows HDB upgraders were around 40% of buyers. But a launch-to-resale gap approaching 100% is the widest the East has ever carried. It is the single number we will re-examine when the price list eventually lands.

What do resale prices say about the sites not yet tendered?

For the five sites still awaiting tender, no land price exists. But the neighbourhoods already have prices. Our dataset of 199 tracked projects gives each pending site a local benchmark. That is where any future launch premium will be measured from.

Two readings from this table. First, the widest gaps between launch and existing prices sit exactly where the most supply is coming, in Bedok and Bayshore. That argues for developers pricing the New Upper Changi Road tender with more restraint than the Newton results might suggest. Second, the exit data is a warning for anyone reading too much into headlines. Among profitable new-sale-to-resale exits in our dataset, Bedok's median gain is about 2.2% a year. That sits below the roughly 3.5% Singapore-wide median across 16,289 exits, and well below Hougang's 3.8%. Pay a big premium over the estate around you and your money has grown more slowly. That holds even where the sale still made a profit.

What does the supply picture look like from here?

Crowded. The first-half list does not stand alone. The second-half programme, announced on 3 June 2026, adds roughly 4,745 more Confirmed List homes across nine sites. That takes the full-year Confirmed List to about 9,320 units. Add the 24 sites already awarded but not yet launched in our tracker, and the pipeline runs to roughly 18,000 homes. So 2027 and 2028 will be dense with launches competing for the same wave of upgraders. Record land rates and heavy supply are not natural companions. One of them usually blinks first. Our working view is that the prime centre, which runs on scarcity, can hold its new benchmarks. Suburban tenders from here get priced against the volume already in the queue. That is exactly what the analyst forecasts for Bayshore Drive were describing, at $1,150 to $1,300 psf ppr, below Bayshore Road's $1,388.

The verdict

If you are buying to live in: the land market has told you where 2027 pricing is going. Up in the prime centre, firm in the East. If a 2026 launch in your target area fits your budget under today's price list, note what waiting means. The next project on that street will be built on more expensive land. And if the premium over nearby resale is more than about 50%, put the resale option through the same shortlist honestly.

If you are investing: the numbers argue for patience on the East's big supply. Three things point the same way. A gap near 100% between launch and resale prices at Bayshore. More than 2,000 units of District 16 supply behind it. And below-median growth among profitable Bedok sales. The entry price, not the area's story, is the deciding variable. The prime record bids are a signal of developer conviction. But at $3,400 psf and up, check the rental sums against actual leases rather than projections.

If you are an HDB upgrader: watch the two EC tenders still to come. They are at Canberra Drive and in the Sembawang area. These are the value events of the second half. Awarded EC land in the north still sits at $692 to $794 psf ppr, against private suburban land above $1,100. That makes the EC discount at launch the widest structural pricing gap available to eligible households. Watch those two tenders more closely than any prime-centre record.

The short version — read this first

Six things to take away from the half.

So what should you do with this?

• Say a 2026 launch in your area fits your budget today. The next project on that street will sit on dearer land.
• If a launch asks more than about 50% over nearby resale prices, put the resale option through the same shortlist honestly.
• If you qualify for an EC, watch the Canberra Drive and Sembawang tenders. EC land at $692 to $794 psf ppr is the widest structural discount available.

Frequently asked questions

Sources & methodology

Land rates, bid counts, site specifications and tender dates are drawn from URA Government Land Sales programme announcements and tender results, as reported by EdgeProp Singapore, The Edge Singapore, The Business Times and Stacked Homes (November 2025 – June 2026), and from ERA Singapore's research commentary on the 1H 2026 GLS programme and the Bayshore Drive tender. Analyst launch-price projections for Peck Hay Road are attributed to the research desks of ERA, PropNex, CBRE, Knight Frank and DBS as reported in June 2026 coverage.

Resale benchmarks are computed from PropertyInsider.sg's tracked dataset of 199 resale condominium projects (median of project-level average 2026 resale psf per estate). Launch pricing and take-up figures for Vela Bay and Pinery Residences are from our new launch dataset, updated 6 July 2026. Annualised gain figures are medians among profitable new-sale-to-resale transaction pairs (n=16,289 Singapore-wide, Jan 2018–Apr 2026) matched from URA caveat data; this dataset excludes loss-making resales, so the figures describe outcomes among profitable exits only and overstate returns relative to all transactions. Indicative launch price figures are produced by our pricing model v2 — (awarded land rate + construction & development cost) × (1 + 10–20% developer margin), market-calibrated where marked ◆, with range width set by plot ratio — documented in full at propertyinsider.sg/research/pricing-methodology.

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