Canberra Drive EC drew 13 bids and a record $825 psf ppr.

HDB's tender for the Canberra Drive EC site closed on 1 October 2026 with 13 bids. The top offer was $163.9 million, or $825 psf ppr, from Santarli Realty, Kay Lim Holdings, Heeton Holdings and Sunray Group. No developer has ever offered more for land meant for an Executive Condominium.

The site is off Canberra Drive in Sembawang, about 0.41km from Canberra MRT, and can hold roughly 185 homes. It is also the first EC site sold under the rules that took effect on 8 May 2026. Buyers here will have to live in the home for ten years before they can sell, not five. This article tests the land price against four things: what it forces the launch price to be, what nearby homes resell for, how the local primary schools ballot, and what is already within walking distance. The live figures sit on our Canberra Drive EC project page.

How we checked this

The bidders and bid amounts are as reported by EdgeProp and Red Hot Singapore on 1 October 2026, the day the tender closed. HDB had not issued an award at the time of writing. The site's area and floor space are HDB's tender figures, held in our land-sale register.

We did the headline sum ourselves. The site can build 18,457 sq m of floor space, which is 198,669 sq ft. Divide $163,903,000 by that and you get $825. That also confirms a plot ratio of 1.6 on the 11,535 sq m site. One report put the plot ratio at about 1.42, which does not reproduce the land rate.

The cost breakdown comes from our own cost model, described in our pricing methodology. School figures come from our dataset of MOE Primary 1 registration results for 2025 and 2026. Distances are straight-line estimates from OneMap map data. Resale figures come from our compilation of URA caveat data, which matches each sale to the earlier purchase of the same home, losses included.

Who bid for Canberra Drive EC, and how close were they?

Thirteen groups bid. Twelve of them landed between $623 and $825 psf ppr, so this was not one runaway bidder.

The top of the list is tight. The first three bids sit within 3.3% of each other. At the New Upper Changi Road tender a month earlier, the winner was 13.8% clear of the next bid. Here, three separate groups arrived at roughly $800 to $825. That makes $825 look like a market price rather than one group's hunch.

The forecasts were well short. ERA's Eugene Lim expected two to three bidders at $650 to $700 psf ppr when the tender opened in May. The middle bid of the thirteen was $680, almost exactly what he forecast. It was the top four bids that went higher.

Why did 13 developers bid for a 185-home site?

Size is the simplest answer. At $164 million, the land bill is a fraction of a typical state site, so smaller builders can afford it. Several of the bidders are construction firms that can build the project themselves. A 185-home project is also quick to sell. Even under tighter rules, it needs far fewer buyers than a 500-home EC.

Location helps too. Huttons Asia's Mark Yip told EdgeProp the result "sets a new benchmark for EC land prices". He linked the wide spread of bids to uncertainty over how the new rules will affect demand. That uncertainty is the buyer's main risk too.

Is $825 psf ppr a record for EC land?

Yes. It beats the $794 Sim Lian paid at Woodlands Drive 17 in January 2026 by 3.9%. It is 19.2% above the $692 paid for Sembawang Road EC, about 0.9km away, in September 2025. The two ECs already built on Canberra Link show how far land has moved.

Land at Canberra Drive cost 46% more than the Provence Residence plot next door did in 2019. Our estimated breakeven rose by 65% over the same seven years, from $1,002 to $1,655. The difference is construction. Building costs have climbed faster than land, and they now make up a bigger share of every new EC.

What does $825 psf ppr mean for the launch price?

Our model adds the other costs to the land. The table shows each line.

Divide $328.7 million by 198,669 sq ft and the breakeven is about $1,655 psf ppr. We add the 15% to 30% margin band that we measured across 42 launched projects. That gives an indicative launch range of $1,900 to $2,150 psf (est.). Part of that margin is not profit. It covers the gap between the floor space a developer pays for and the smaller area it can actually sell.

Two other methods give answers either side of ours. Recent EC launches priced at 2.38 to 2.47 times their land cost: Coastal Cabana and Rivelle Tampines. That multiple implies about $1,960 to $2,040 psf here, inside our range. Analysts quoted by EdgeProp expect nearer $1,800 psf. That would be only 9% above our breakeven, below the margin most developers have achieved. All three figures are estimates and are not developer-confirmed.

How does that compare with what nearby homes resell for?

Badly, at first sight. The table covers the five private condos within 1km and two older ECs nearby.

The two condos finished in 2024 are the fair comparison. The Commodore and The Watergardens at Canberra stand on the two Canberra Drive plots sold in 2020 at $644 and $650 psf ppr. Over the past year they resold at a median of about $1,730 psf. Our estimate for the EC is 10% to 25% above that. Canberra Crescent Residences, a private condo now selling about 0.7km away, has sold 341 of its 376 homes at an average of $1,990 psf. The EC range sits around that figure too.

So the usual EC bargain, a discount to private housing on the same street, is thin here or gone. That discount was historically the whole appeal.

The table also has good news. Owners near Canberra MRT have rarely lost money. Across 841 resales in the five private condos within 1km, 820 made a gain. The two newest did best, at a median of more than 4% a year.

What does the 10-year MOP change for buyers here?

Because the tender closed after 8 May 2026, every rule in the new framework applies. Our analysis of the 2026 EC rules covers them in full. Four matter most at Canberra Drive.

• Ten-year stay. With completion around 2031 (est.), the first sale falls around 2041 (est.).
• Fully private at fifteen years, around 2046 (est.). Foreigners can buy only from then.
• No deferred payment scheme. Buyers pay in stages during construction.
• 90% of launch-day units for first-timers. Second-timer households compete for the other 10%.

The ten years also block renting out the whole unit and buying a second home. Sembawang Road EC, about 0.9km away, and Miltonia Close EC in Yishun were tendered before the cut-off and keep the five-year rule. Both are expected to launch first. A buyer will compare them directly with Canberra Drive, and the only way for this project to win that comparison is on price or on product.

Which primary schools are near Canberra Drive EC?

Two within 1km and six more within 2km. Both of the closest schools were oversubscribed at Phase 2C in 2026. Phase 2C is the stage open to children with no family link to the school.

Living within 1km of Sembawang or Wellington puts a child in the ballot. It does not guarantee a place. At Wellington in 2026, 45 places went to 85 applicants. The wider picture is easier. Five schools between 1.3km and 1.9km had at least as many places as applicants. Chongfu is the hard one, and this site is outside its 1km ring. MOE measures distance from the registered address in its own way, so check on MOE SchoolFinder before you rely on any figure here. Our study of school demand and new launches explains how these ratios move from year to year.

What is within walking distance today?

Most of what a family uses every week. Nothing in this list depends on a future project.

The North-South Line runs from Canberra to Raffles Place, about 18km south, without a change. The nearest big job centre is the Woodlands Regional Centre, under 5km away in a straight line. On the road side, LTA said in September 2026 that the North-South Corridor viaduct from Admiralty Road West will now open in phases from 2029, two years later than planned, with the tunnels from 2031. URA's Master Plan 2025 marks Sembawang Shipyard for a waterfront district after 2028, with no housing dates set. The location works without either.

What stands in its favour?

• A real market price for the land. Three bids within 3.3% of each other, out of thirteen, suggest developers broadly agree on the value.
• An established estate. MRT, two malls, a polyclinic, a hawker centre and a sports centre are already within about 0.6km.
• A small project. At about 185 homes, it needs few buyers to sell out, which reduces the pressure to cut prices.
• A clean local resale record. 820 of 841 resales at the five private condos within 1km made money.
• Family-sized homes. 198,669 sq ft over 185 homes is about 1,070 sq ft of floor space each (est.).

What could go wrong?

• Little or no EC discount. At $1,900 psf or more (est.), buyers pay more than the private condos next door resell for, and wait ten years to sell.
• A large cash gap. EC loans are capped at 30% of income, tested at 4%. At the $16,000 ceiling that supports about $909,000. A 950 sq ft three-bedroom at $1,900 to $2,150 psf (est.) needs about $0.9 million to $1.13 million in cash and CPF, with no deferred payment to ease it.
• Competition with easier rules. Sembawang Road EC and Miltonia Close EC keep the five-year exit and launch first.
• A second new-rules tender. Admiralty Walk EC, about 450 homes, closes on 17 December 2026. A lower price there would make $825 look expensive.

Our affordability calculator and progressive payment calculator show how the cash gap plays out stage by stage.

The short version

So what should you do with this?

• Plan around $1,900 to $2,150 psf for now. Compare any price list against the $1,730 psf that the 2024-built condos next door fetch.
• Work out your cash and CPF position before preview. At the income ceiling, the loan covers only about half of a three-bedroom.
• Only buy if you expect to stay ten years. If you might need to sell sooner, look at an EC tendered before 8 May 2026 or at private resale.

Frequently asked questions

Sources & methodology

Bids and bidders are as reported by EdgeProp on 1 October 2026 and by Red Hot Singapore the same day. We have not seen an HDB award notice, because none had been issued. The tender launch is on HDB's release of 25 May 2026; the site's area and floor space come from HDB's tender figures in our land-sale register. ERA's pre-tender forecasts are from its Canberra Drive commentary and Admiralty Walk commentary. The North-South Corridor dates are LTA's revised timetable of September 2026, as reported by AsiaOne. Sembawang Shipyard plans are from URA's Master Plan 2025.

The cost breakdown and breakeven are our own estimates from the PropertyInsider.sg cost model, explained in our pricing methodology. Earlier EC land prices are from our land cost tracker. School results are MOE Primary 1 registration figures compiled in our schools dataset. Resale and rent figures are our own compilation of URA caveat data and lodged rental contracts. Amenity distances use the same straight-line and walking model as our project pages. The wider pipeline is in our GLS pipeline tracker.

See the full Canberra Drive EC project page