Canberra Drive (EC)

The research read

Canberra Drive EC is a planned Executive Condominium of about 185 homes on a 99-year lease, off Canberra Drive in Sembawang, District 27. HDB's tender for the site closed on 1 October 2026. The top bid was $163.9 million, or $825 psf ppr, from Santarli Realty, Kay Lim Holdings, Heeton Holdings and Sunray Group. HDB has not yet made the award. A preview around Q1 2028 (est.) and completion around 2031 (est.) are our projections.

Three things to take note. It is the first EC site sold under the rules that took effect on 8 May 2026, so buyers here must live in the home for ten years, not five. Its $825 psf ppr is a record for EC land, 3.9% above the $794 paid at Woodlands Drive 17 in January. And it drew 13 bids for a site of only 185 homes, the most for any EC site since Sumang Walk drew 17 in 2018.

So what does a developer that paid a record price have to charge, in a market where the buyer now waits a decade to sell? We look at four questions. Does the land cost push the launch price past the private condos next door? What does a ten-year stay cost the buyer? Can a household on the $16,000 income ceiling borrow enough? And how do the two primary schools inside 1km actually ballot?

Thirteen bids for 185 homes

Forecasts going in were modest. When the tender opened in May 2026, ERA's Eugene Lim expected two to three bidders at $650 to $700 psf ppr. Thirteen turned up. Twelve of them bid between $623 and $825.

We checked the headline sum. HDB's figures give the site 18,457 sq m of floor space, or 198,669 sq ft, on 11,535 sq m of land, a plot ratio of 1.6. Divide $163,903,000 by 198,669 and you get $825. One news report gave the plot ratio as about 1.42. That figure does not reproduce the published land rate, so we use 1.6.

The top three bids sat within 3.3% of each other. That matters more than the record. When three groups price a site within a few dollars, the price is a market reading rather than one bidder's bet. The middle bid of the thirteen was $680, which is close to what forecasters expected. The top of the field simply went higher.

Why so many bidders? The total cheque is small, at $164 million, which brings mid-sized builders into play. A 185-home project is also easy to sell out, even under tighter rules. Huttons Asia's Mark Yip told EdgeProp the spread of bids partly reflects uncertainty over how the new rules will affect demand.

From $825 land to a $1,900–$2,150 price list

Land is only one line in a developer's costs. The ladder below puts this site against every EC land sale that frames it, including the two ECs already built on the same road.

* Range of first-sale prices paid by the nine Provence Residence owners who have since resold, in our caveat records. Not a launch average.

Our cost model adds construction, land financing, stamp duty, professional fees and marketing to the $163.9 million land bill. Construction comes to about $90.4 million, financing $25.8 million, fees and taxes $29.9 million and marketing $18.6 million. The total is about $328.7 million. Spread over 198,669 sq ft, that is an estimated breakeven of $1,655 psf ppr. Land is almost exactly half of it.

We then apply the 15% to 30% margin band we use on every project on this site. That gives an indicative launch range of $1,900 to $2,150 psf. The working is in our pricing methodology, which also shows how the band has held up against 42 launched projects. Part of the margin is not profit at all. It covers the gap between the floor space a developer pays for and the strata area it can sell.

The two ECs a few hundred metres away tell the cost story. Provence Residence's land cost $566 psf ppr in 2019. This plot cost 46% more. Our estimated breakeven rose 65%, from $1,002 to $1,655, because building costs climbed faster than land. A high land price raises the floor under the launch price. It does not lift the ceiling, and it does not tell you what the home will resell for.

Ten years before you can sell

The tender closed after 8 May 2026, so the new EC framework applies in full. The full rule change is set out in our analysis. For this site, it means four things.

• Minimum stay of ten years from the day the keys are issued. With completion around 2031 (est.), the first chance to sell lands around 2041 (est.).
• Fully private at fifteen years, around 2046 (est.). Only then can foreigners buy, which is when the buyer pool is widest.
• No deferred payment scheme. Buyers pay in stages as the building goes up, as with a private condo.
• Ninety per cent of units for first-timers on launch day. Second-timer households share the remaining 10%.

During those ten years an owner may rent out rooms but not the whole unit, and may not buy another home. For most buyers that rules out the usual EC plan of selling at year five to fund the next step. The ECs exempt from the change, including Sembawang Road EC about 0.9km away, keep the five-year exit. Canberra Drive will be compared with them at launch, and it will need a lower price or a better product to win that comparison.

A six-minute walk to the North-South Line

• Canberra MRT (NS12), North-South Line: about 0.41km in a straight line, roughly 6 minutes on foot (est.). Verify the route on OneMap. The line runs to Raffles Place with no change, about 18km south.
• Sembawang MRT (NS11): about 0.84km, roughly 13 minutes on foot (est.). It also serves the Sun Plaza bus interchange.
• Yishun MRT (NS13): about 1.96km, better reached by bus.
• Roads: the Seletar Expressway, south of Yishun, is the main route by car today. The North-South Corridor will add a faster road route to town. LTA revised its timetable in September 2026: the viaduct section from Admiralty Road West is now targeted to open in phases from 2029, and the tunnels from 2031.

The case here does not rest on a future line. Canberra station has run since November 2019. If the North-South Corridor slips again, the daily commute is unchanged.

Is anything new coming to Canberra?

The Government has not announced any other transformation for Canberra. The estate is mostly built. Bukit Canberra, with its hawker centre, sports centre and polyclinic, is already open about 0.56km away. Two longer-range plans are worth knowing about.

• Sembawang Shipyard: URA's Master Plan 2025 marks it for a waterfront district with housing and public space. Shipyard operations wind down in 2028. No housing dates have been set.
• North-South Corridor: the road and cycling link to the city described above, phased from 2029 (officially targeted).

Treat both as long-dated. Neither has a confirmed completion date that falls inside the ten-year stay, so neither should carry the price.

Two schools within 1km, both oversubscribed

Our schools dataset places two primary schools within 1km radius of the development, measured in a straight line from OneMap map data.

• Sembawang Primary School, about 0.59km. In the 2026 exercise, Phase 2C drew 79 applicants for 58 places and was balloted for children living within 1km. In 2025 it was 107 for 75.
• Wellington Primary School, about 0.91km. Phase 2C drew 85 applicants for 45 places in 2026, and 104 for 40 in 2025. It also balloted at Phase 2A in both years.

Between 1km and 2km sit Canberra Primary (1.35km), Ahmad Ibrahim (1.43km), Endeavour (1.44km), Yishun (1.51km), Chongfu (1.58km) and Xishan (1.82km). Canberra Primary filled Phase 2C in 2026 without a ballot, with 86 applicants for 87 places. Chongfu ran the other way, at 137 applicants for 48 places.

Living within 1km gets a child into the ballot at Sembawang and Wellington. It does not get them a place. At Wellington in 2026, about one in two Phase 2C applicants succeeded. Phase 2C is the stage open to children with no family link to the school. MOE measures home-to-school distance from the registered address on its own basis, which can differ from ours, so confirm on MOE SchoolFinder or the OneMap school query. Our schools and new-launch demand study covers how these ratios move.

Daily needs are close. Sembawang Shopping Centre is about 0.35km away and Canberra Plaza about 0.5km. Sembawang Polyclinic and the Bukit Canberra hawker centre are each about 0.56km. Sir Manasseh Meyer International School is about 0.92km. Sembawang Park and the beach are about 2.2km north.

What the neighbours resell for

This is the comparison a buyer will face at every resale. The table uses our own matched records of homes bought and later sold, losses included.

Here are two findings. The good one: owners near Canberra MRT have rarely lost money. Across 841 recorded resales in the five private condos within 1km, 820 made a gain, and the two newest did best. The harder one: our estimated range is about 10% to 25% above what those 2024-built private condos fetch today. An EC buyer here would be paying more than a private resale next door, for a home they cannot sell for ten years. The two older ECs also show where an ageing EC can settle, at roughly half the price of a new one.

None of the three ECs closest to this site, Parc Canberra, Provence Residence and the new Sembawang Road EC, has reached the open resale market yet. So there is no local record of how an EC bought near $1,900 psf performs at its first exit.

Renting it out is off the table until about 2041

For an investor, this is the plainest fact on the page. Under the ten-year rule the whole unit cannot be let until the stay is served, around 2041 (est.). Room rental is allowed. For context only, our lodged-contract data puts The Commodore at an average $5.18 psf a month across 80 contracts. At $1,900 psf that would be a gross yield of about 3.3%, but the rule means no owner here collects it for a decade. Our new launch ROI calculator shows how much a long hold with no rental income changes the return.

The household this EC is built around

This project fits a first-time family with young children, a household income under $16,000 a month and a plan to stay put for ten years or more. It fits families who want a place inside the ballot at Sembawang or Wellington Primary, and who value an MRT station six minutes away more than a quick resale. It also suits owners of a flat nearby that has finished its own minimum stay, if the sale proceeds are large. It does not fit a household that expects to sell around year five, an investor counting on rent, or a buyer whose whole budget is a small HDB sale with little cash on top. For those buyers an exempt EC on the old rules, or a private resale, does the job better.

The $909,000 loan ceiling and the cash it leaves

EC purchases from a developer are capped by the mortgage servicing ratio. Loan repayments may not exceed 30% of gross monthly income, tested at an interest rate of 4%. At the $16,000 ceiling that supports a loan of roughly $909,000 over 25 years. That cap binds well before the usual 75% loan limit.

Take a 950 sq ft three-bedroom, the typical size the pricing panel above assumes (est.). At $1,900 psf it costs about $1.81 million, so the buyer needs about $896,000 in cash and CPF. At $2,150 psf the price is about $2.04 million and the shortfall about $1.13 million. That is roughly half the price, or more. Most buyers close that gap with an HDB sale. The deferred payment scheme, which used to let them sell the flat after collecting keys, no longer applies here. So the sequence now matters: sell first, or carry two loans during construction.

Singapore Citizen households buying their first home pay no Additional Buyer's Stamp Duty. Buyer's Stamp Duty applies as normal; our stamp duty calculator works it out. The affordability calculator and the progressive payment calculator show the cash profile stage by stage, and our guide to selling an HDB to buy a new launch covers the order of events. Eligibility rules change, so check the current conditions at HDB.gov.sg. Get an in-principle loan approval before preview, and test the repayment at a rate above today's.

Where Canberra Drive EC could disappoint

Each card names a risk, sizes it, and gives the strongest argument the other way.

• HighPriced like a private condo, sold like an ECOur $1,900–$2,150 psf range (est.) sits 10% to 25% above the median $1,730 psf at which The Commodore and The Watergardens resold over the past year, and around Canberra Crescent Residences' $1,990 average. The usual EC discount to private housing is thin or absent. The counter-argument is the 13-bid tender: three groups valued the land within 3.3% of each other, which suggests developers expect demand at these levels.
• HighThe cash gap at the income ceilingA $909,000 loan cap against a $1.81–$2.04 million three-bedroom (est.) leaves about $0.9 million to $1.13 million to find, with no deferred payment scheme to buy time. The mitigant is the size of local HDB equity, and smaller units priced from the bottom of the range.
• ModerateCompeting ECs with easier rulesSembawang Road EC (about 265 homes, est. $1,690–$1,910 psf) and Miltonia Close EC (about 430 homes) keep the five-year exit and launch first. Admiralty Walk EC, about 450 homes, closes its tender on 17 December 2026 under the same new rules as this site. The mitigant: at 185 homes, this project needs few buyers to sell out.
• ModerateA ten-year lock with no rental incomeThe first sale falls around 2041 (est.), and the whole unit cannot be let before then. The mitigant is that many first-time families stay ten years anyway, and every new EC from here on carries the same terms.
• LowCommute and daily needsCanberra MRT at about 0.41km, two malls inside 0.5km and a polyclinic at about 0.56km are already in place. Only the North-South Corridor depends on future work, and the case does not need it.

Award, Admiralty Walk, then preview

1. Sep 2018Canberra Link EC sold$558 psf ppr; now Parc Canberra, 496 homes.
2. Oct 2019Second Canberra Link EC sold$566 psf ppr; now Provence Residence, 413 homes.
3. 8 May 2026EC rules tightenedTen-year stay, fifteen-year privatisation, no deferred payment, 90% first-timer quota, for tenders closing from this date.
4. 26 May 2026HDB opens the Canberra Drive tenderThe first EC site offered under the new rules; about 185 homes on 11,535 sq m.
5. 1 Oct 2026Tender closes with 13 bidsTop bid $163.9M, $825 psf ppr, an EC record. Our estimated breakeven: $1,655 psf ppr.
6. Oct–Nov 2026 (est.)HDB awardConfirms the developer and the land price. HDB usually awards within a few weeks of the close.
7. 17 Dec 2026Admiralty Walk EC tender closesThe second new-rules EC site, about 450 homes, roughly 2km away. Its price will show whether $825 holds as a benchmark.
8. Q1 2028 (est.)Preview and price listUnit mix and prices published. Take-up on launch weekend is the demand signal to watch.
9. 2031 (est.)CompletionKeys issued; the ten-year stay starts.
10. 2041 / 2046 (est.)First resale, then full private statusSale to other eligible buyers from year ten; sale to anyone, including foreigners, from year fifteen.

Our read on Canberra Drive EC

Canberra Drive EC trades a record land price and a ten-year lock for a small, family-sized project six minutes from an MRT station, with two balloted primary schools inside 1km and daily needs within a short walk. You would pay an estimated $1,900 to $2,150 psf, at or above what nearby private condos resell for, in exchange for the location, a new building and EC eligibility. It suits a first-timer family planning to stay a decade. It does not suit anyone who needs to sell or rent within ten years, or who cannot raise around $0.9 million to $1.1 million on top of the loan.

Watch two figures. The first is the launch price against the $1,730 psf at which the 2024-built condos next door resell. The closer the EC lands to that figure, the better the trade. The second is Admiralty Walk's tender in December, which will show whether $825 psf ppr is the new level for EC land or a one-off. We will update this page at award and again at preview. For the wider picture, see our Canberra Drive EC tender analysis, the GLS pipeline tracker and the land cost tracker.

Canberra Drive EC in seven lines

• About 185 EC homes, 99-year lease, off Canberra Drive in Sembawang (D27).
• Top bid $163.9M, or $825 psf ppr, from a Santarli, Kay Lim, Heeton and Sunray group: an EC record, against 13 bids. Award pending.
• Estimated breakeven $1,655 psf ppr; indicative launch $1,900–$2,150 psf (est.), not developer-confirmed.
• First EC under the 2026 rules: ten-year stay, private at fifteen years, no deferred payment.
• Canberra MRT about 0.41km; Sembawang and Wellington Primary within 1km, both balloted at Phase 2C in 2026.
• Nearby 2024-built condos resell around $1,730 psf, below our estimated range.
• At the $16,000 income ceiling the loan tops out near $909,000, so expect to fund about half the price in cash and CPF.

Sources: HDB Government Land Sales tender records for Canberra Drive (EC) and earlier EC sites; tender-close reporting by EdgeProp and Red Hot Singapore, 1 October 2026; ERA Singapore commentary on the Canberra Drive and Admiralty Walk tender launches (May and June 2026); Ministry of National Development EC measures of 8 May 2026; LTA's revised North-South Corridor timeline, September 2026; URA Master Plan 2025 (Sembawang Shipyard); HDB EC eligibility conditions and MAS MSR rules as at October 2026; MOE P1 registration results compiled in our schools dataset; our own land-sales, cost-model and URA caveat datasets. Figures marked (est.) are estimates and may change; no developer has been appointed and no price list exists. Past performance of nearby projects does not predict future results. This page is research, not financial advice. PropertyInsider.sg is an independent research publication; the publisher's related interests are disclosed in our editorial policy.

Page history

• 3 Oct 2026 — Wording pass. Region names now use URA's CCR, RCR and OCR labels, and several phrases were simplified for first-read clarity. No figure, date or source changed.
• 1 Oct 2026 — Research write-up published on the day the tender closed: all 13 bids, the $825 psf ppr EC record, an estimated breakeven of $1,655 psf ppr from the PropertyInsider.sg cost model and an indicative launch range of $1,900–$2,150 psf. Added the EC land ladder, a resale table for seven nearby projects, the ten-year-stay analysis, primary-school ballot figures for 2025 and 2026, and a location map.
• Next scheduled update — HDB's award notice, then the preview and price list, when the indicative range is replaced with actual prices.

Frequently asked questions